Annex III – Historical Trends

Longer historical trends are explored for indicators where data are available (i.e., for 10 of the 32 youth indicators). Historical trends are not possible for indicators under the expected outcomes on Canadians’ understanding of the role of and confidence with the youth criminal justice system (CJS) (Expected outcome 3), youth victims’ and survivors’ involvement with the CJS (Expected outcome 7), and the overrepresentation of Black youth in the CJS (Expected outcome 9).

A. Police-reported youth crime rate, 1998 to 2022, Canada

Police-reported youth Crime Rate, 25-year Trend

Positive decrease

With the exception of five small increases in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2022, the police-reported youth crime rate consistently declined over the years. Overall, the police-reported youth crime rate decreased by 63%, from 6,957 per 100,000 youth in 1998 to 2,576 in 2022. While the rate of youth charged saw a decrease of 75% over the years, the rate of youth not charged varied over the years; the rate increased until 2003 before progressively declining.

Figure 1: Police-reported youth Crime Rate, 25-year Trend, Positive decrease
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  1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Rate of youth charged per 100,000 population 4,365.11 4,024.70 4,072.74 4,116.71 3,904.21 3,249.96 3,004.22 2,859.87 2,812.11 2,886.24 2,768.87 2,727.80 2,563.66 2,345.62 2,236.65 1,968.54 1,775.83 1,734.12 1,649.57 1,609.27 1,480.76 1,433.89 979.61 906.87 1099.75
Rate of youth not charged per 100,000 population 2,591.77 2,413.87 2,841.74 3,042.10 3,041.22 4,029.86 3,954.60 3,735.82 3,996.46 3,883.85 3,768.00 3,787.31 3,514.48 3,140.56 2,928.77 2,423.25 2,240.22 2,211.97 2,117.69 2,155.79 1,910.82 1,783.50 1,254.96 1,279.17 1,476.18
Rate of youth crime per 100,000 population 6,956.88 6,438.57 6,914.48 7,158.81 6,945.43 7,279.82 6,958.82 6,595.69 6,808.57 6,770.12 6,536.87 6,515.11 6,078.14 5,486.18 5,165.42 4,391.79 4,016.05 3,946.09 3,767.26 3,765.06 3,391.58 3,217.39 2,234.57 2,186.04 2,575.93

Notes: The police-reported youth crime rate includes all Criminal Code violations, excluding traffic violations. The rates are calculated per 100,000 population aged 12 to 17 years. Data on youth charged and youth not charged may include a small number of people under the age of 12. Incident-based Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR2) data are not available for all respondents. In order to report this level of detail for police services still reporting to the Aggregate UCR, a process of imputation was applied to derive counts for violations that do not exist on their own in the aggregate survey. For approximately 80% of the aggregate offence codes, there is a 1:1 mapping with a new incident-based violation code.

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-a. Table 35-10-0077-01 Incident-based crime statistics, by detailed violations, Canada, provinces, territories, Census Metropolitan Areas and Canadian Forces Military Police.

B. Youth crime severity, 1998 to 2022, Canada

Youth Crime Severity Index, 25-year Trend

Positive decrease

The Youth Crime Severity Index (CSI) was at its highest recorded in 1998 at 110.2. Following the enactment of the YCJA, the Youth CSI has gradually decreased by 53%. In 2022, the Youth CSI increased by 21% from 41.6 in 2021 to 50.2 in 2022, primarily due to large increases in extortion, shoplifting, theft of a motor vehicle, theft over $5,000, and robbery.

Figure 2: Youth Crime Severity Index, 25-year Trend, Positive decrease
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  1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Youth CSI 110.24 99.34 103.53 105.96 101.1 106.03 100.84 97.31 100 101.45 95.66 95.55 90.01 81.72 77.42 66.16 60.62 60.42 59.89 62.68 56.58 55.1 43.02 41.61 50.19

Violent and Non-Violent Crime Severity Indexes, 25-year Trend

Positive decrease

While the Youth Violent CSI and the Youth Non-violent CSI both declined between 1998 and 2022, the decline was more pronounced with the Non-violent CSI, which decreased by 79%. Between 2021 and 2022, increases were recorded for the Youth Violent CSI (+27%) and the Youth Non-violent CSI (+9%).

Figure 3: Violent and Non-Violent Crime Severity Indexes, 25-year Trend, Positive decrease
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  1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Youth Violent CSI 86.59 83.51 89.31 91.38 87.26 92.62 87.84 94.11 100 102.05 95.473 96.69 93.24 87.47 82.34 71.23 64.84 66.39 70.93 80.51 77.04 79.82 66.92 64.99 82.77
Youth Non-violent CSI 128.25 111.4 114.36 117.07 111.65 116.23 110.74 99.75 100 100.99 95.61 94.68 87.56 77.29 73.59 62.27 57.37 55.93 51.80 49.93 42.10 37.72 26.32 25.28 27.45

Notes: The Youth Crime Severity Index (CSI) is based on the number of youth aged 12 to 17 who were either charged (or recommended for charging) by police or diverted from the formal CJS through the use of warnings, cautions, referrals to community programs, etc. The Youth CSI reflects the relative seriousness of different offences but uses the number of youth accused instead of an incident count. The Youth Violent CSI includes all Incident-based Uniform Crime Reporting Survey (UCR2) violent violations, such as uttering threats, criminal harassment and forcible confinement. The Youth Non-violent CSI includes all non-violent Criminal Code violations including traffic, as well as drug violations and all Federal Statues.

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-b. Table 35-10-0026-01 Crime severity index and weighted clearance rates, Canada, provinces, territories and Census Metropolitan Areas; Statistics Canada. 2023. “Police-reported crime statistics in Canada, 2022.” The Daily.

C. Youth case completion time, 1997/1998 to 2021/2022, Canada

Youth Case Completion Time, 25-year Trend

Negative Increase

The median number of days for a youth case to be completed increased by 244% from 66 days in 1997/1998 to 227 in 2021/2022. The largest increase was reported between 2019/2020 and 2020/2021, where the median number of days for a youth case to be completed rose by 46%; this can largely be attributed to the court closures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 4: Youth Case Completion Time, 25-year Trend, Negative Increase
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Median number of days 66 72 75 70 78 81 106 106 106 110 113 119 116 113 110 114 120 120 125 135 141 155 162 236 227

Notes: Elapsed times are calculated based on the number of days it takes to complete a case, from first appearance to final decision. The median is the point at which half of all cases had longer case lengths and half had shorter case lengths. Excludes cases in which the case length was unknown. Cases are counted according to the fiscal year in which they are completed. These counts do not include cases that were pending a final decision at the end of the reference period. A case is one or more charges against an accused person or company, which were processed by the courts at the same time (date of offence, date of initiation, date of first appearance, or date of decision/sentencing), and received a final decision. The individuals involved are persons aged 12 to 17 years at the time of the offence. Data for 2021/2022 may be incomplete as there is no data from Quebec.

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-e. Table 35-10-0040-01 Youth courts, cases by median elapsed time in days.

D. Administration of justice offences (AOJOs) in youth courts, 1997/1998 to 2021/2022, Canada

AOJOs as the Most Serious Offence in the Case in Youth Courts, 25-year Trend

Stable

The number of AOJO cases in youth courts declined significantly over the years (-87%), while the percentage of AOJO cases (of all cases in youth courts) ranged between 8% and 11%. In the 1990s and 2000s, the percentage of AOJO cases increased from 9% in 1997/1998 to 11% in 2005/2006, where it remained steady until 2016/2017 when the percentage of AOJO cases in youth courts began to decrease. The lowest percentage (8%) was recorded in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021. In 2021/2022, this percentage was similar to 1997/1998 levels, representing 9% of all youth offences.

Figure 5: AOJOs as the Most Serious Offence in the Case in Youth Courts, 25-year Trend, Stable
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Percentage of AOJOs of all offences in youth courts 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9%
Number of AOJOs in youth courts 7,521 7,388 6,884 7,143 7,257 7,071 6,280 5,919 6,053 6,230 6,327 6,353 6,104 5,702 5,259 4,893 4,352 3,632 3,398 3,111 2,528 2,155 1,786 1,148 974

Notes: A case that has more than one charge is represented by the charge with the most serious offence. The charge with the most serious offence is selected according to an offence seriousness scale, based on actual sentences handed down by courts in Canada. Cases are counted according to the fiscal year in which they are completed. These counts do not include cases that were pending a final decision at the end of the reference period. A case is one or more charges against an accused person or company, which were processed by the courts at the same time (date of offence, date of initiation, date of first appearance, or date of decision/sentencing), and received a final decision. The individuals involved are persons aged 12 to 17 years at the time of the offence. Data for a given year may be incomplete due to missing data for one or more jurisdictions. There are missing data from the following jurisdictions due to the unavailability of data: Quebec (2021/2022) and the Northwest Territories (2020/2021 and 2021/2022).

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-f. Table 35-10-0038-01 Youth courts, number of cases and charges by type of decision.

E. Youth incarceration rate, 1997/1998 to 2021/2022, Canada

Youth Incarceration Rate, 25-year Trend

Positive decrease

The youth incarceration rate declined by 88% from 20.22 per 10,000 youth population in 1997/1998 to 2.37 in 2021/2022. The largest year-over-year decrease was reported in 2003/2004, when the incarceration rate dropped by 39%. This decrease can be explained in part by the enactment of the YCJA, which included explicit language on the consideration and application of extrajudicial measures instead of custody.

Figure 6: Youth Incarceration Rate, 25-year Trend, Positive decrease
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Incarceration rate per 10,000 youth population 20.22 19.66 18.08 17.64 16.62 15.39 9.42 8.70 7.77 7.65 7.66 7.31 7.06 6.80 7.46 7.12 6.34 5.61 5.57 4.89 4.23 3.80 3.54 2.53 2.37

Notes: Incarceration rates are based on total actual-in counts, as well as population estimates provided by the Centre for Demography of Statistics Canada. The youth population refers to youth aged 12 to 17 years old. It should be noted that some youth in custody may be up to 20 years of age if they were less than 18 years of age when the offence was committed, but have since reached the age of a legal adult. Rates are calculated per 10,000 youth population. Data represent the total for all reporting jurisdictions. Data for a given year may be incomplete due to missing data for one or more jurisdictions. There are missing data from the following jurisdictions due to the unavailability of data: Quebec (2011/2012 to 2021/2022), Ontario (1997/1998 to 2002/2003), Alberta (2013/2014), and Nunavut (1999/2000 to 2000/2001). Comparison between years at the national level should be made with caution.

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-d. Table 35-10-0003-01 Average counts of young persons in provincial and territorial correctional services.

F. Guilty youth court cases sentenced to custody, 1997/1998 to 2021/2022, Canada

Guilty Youth Court Cases Sentenced to Custody, 25-year Trend

Positive decrease

The number of youth court cases that received a custodial sentence as the most serious sentence in the case decreased by 98% between 1997/1998 and 2021/2022. The percentage of youth court cases that received a custodial sentence also declined, from 29% of all youth court cases in 1997/1998 to 9% in 2021/2022. Aside from the two most recent years, where large drops were recorded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the third largest year-over-year decrease in the number of youth court cases receiving a custodial sentence was reported in 2003/2004 following the enactment of the YCJA.

Figure 7: Guilty Youth Court Cases Sentenced to Custody, 25-year Trend, Positive decrease
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Percentage of cases that received a custodial sentence of all guilty youth court cases 29% 29% 28% 29% 27% 27% 22% 21% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12% 10% 9%
Number of youth court cases that received a custodial sentence 17,330 16,828 15,151 15,081 13,867 13,237 8,609 7,578 6,551 5,786 5,605 5,375 4,844 4,699 4,209 3,883 3,398 2,839 2,722 2,051 1,811 1,457 1,260 653 402

Notes: A case is one or more charges against an accused person or company, which were processed by the courts at the same time (date of offence, date of initiation, date of first appearance, or date of decision/sentencing), and received a final decision. Cases are counted according to the fiscal year in which they are completed. Data on youth represent individuals aged 12 to 17 at the time of the offence. Guilty findings include guilty of the charged offence, of an included offence, of an attempt of the charged offence, or of an attempt of an included offence. This category also includes guilty pleas, and cases where an absolute or conditional discharge has been imposed. It is possible to receive more than one sentence type in relation to a guilty charge in a case. Only the most serious sentence in the case is represented. Sentence types are ranked from most to least serious as follows: Intensive rehabilitative custody and supervision; custody and supervision – presumptive, murder; custody and supervision – presumptive, excluding murder; custody and supervision; custody (supervision type) not specified, youth custodial sentence under the Youth Offenders Act, or adult custody; conditional sentence, deferred custody and supervision; Intensive support and supervision; probation; prohibition, seizure, forfeiture; community service; personal service/compensation in kind; pay purchaser; restitution; compensation; fine; conditional discharge; absolute discharge; reprimand; and other. Note that since 2004/2005 for the Northwest Territories, the number of custody orders have been under-reported and the number of probation orders have been over-reported by unknown amounts due to clerical procedures. The majority of custody orders were captured as probation. Data for 2021/2022 may be incomplete as there is no data from Quebec.

Source: Statistics Canada. n.d.-g. Table 35-10-0042-01 Youth courts, guilty cases by most serious sentence.

G. Youth admissions to provincial/territorial correctional services, 1997/1998 to 2021/2022, Canada

Youth Admissions to Pre-Trial Detention, 25-year Trend

Negative Increase

The number of youth admissions to pre-trial detention has declined over the years, from 1,112 in 1997/1998 to 274 in 2021/2022. Despite the decrease in the number of youth admissions to pre-trial detention, their percentage of all youth admissions to correctional services increased significantly over the years, from 23% 1997/1998 to 60% in 2021/2022.

Figure 8: Youth Admissions to Pre-Trial Detention, 25-year Trend, Negative Increase
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Percentage of youth admissions to pre-trial detention of all youth admissions to correctional services 23% 23% 24% 28% 29% 30% 35% 41% 42% 47% 50% 51% 52% 53% 53% 52% 50% 54% 57% 58% 58% 56% 57% 56% 60%
Number of youth admissions to pre-trial detention 1,111.70 1,107.70 1,083.60 1,200.80 1,217.40 1,171.00 849.8 924.3 857.7 936.5 995.9 968.2 947.4 903.5 765.5 706.9 508.7 561 579.3 520.1 464.5 399.1 382.9 273.9 274.2

Youth Admissions to Community Supervision, 25-year Trend

Positive Increase

After the enactment of the YCJA, the percentage of youth admissions to community supervision (of all admissions to correctional services) increased; the largest increase of 15 percentage points was reported between 2002/2003 and 2003/2004. In 2011/2012, the percentage of youth admissions to community supervision decreased slowly before increasing again in 2015/2016 and has been increasing ever since.

The highest percentage of youth admissions to community supervision was observed in 2021/2022, representing 70% of any provincial/territorial correctional services.

Figure 9: Youth Admissions to Community Supervision, 25-year Trend, Positive Increase
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Percentage of admissions to community supervision of all youth admissions to correctional services 54% 55% 54% 55% 55% 50% 65% 58% 62% 62% 63% 64% 64% 64% 58% 57% 57% 55% 53% 54% 55% 58% 64% 66% 70%
Number of youth admissions to community supervision 38,027 38,675 35,681 36,509 38,304 26,422 37,951 31,110 35,568 35,815 38,266 37,928 35,752 32,697 19,710 13,978 12,029 9,743 8,828 10,212 9,539 8,436 11,177 6,615 6,728

Indigenous Youth Admissions to Correctional Services, 25-year Trend

Negative Increase

While the number of Indigenous youth admissions to provincial/territorial correctional services generally declined over the years, their percentage of all youth admissions increased significantly from 13% in 1997/1998 to 41% in 2021/2022. This trend was observed for both Indigenous girls and boys.

Figure 10: Indigenous Youth Admissions to Correctional Services, 25-year Trend, Negative Increase
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  1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
Percentage of Indigenous youth admissions of all youth admissions to correctional services 12.72% 14.56% 14.66% 15.58% 14.32% 16.25% 14.02% 19.31% 17.89% 18.13% 19.98% 20.20% 20.37% 20.45% 31.13% 31.39% 32.67% 32.19% 34.10% 43.33% 42.17% 42.93% 41.47% 42.62% 41.38%
Number of Indigenous youth admissions to correctional services 8,970 10,222 9,717 10,331 10,058 8,528 8,199 10,426 10,258 10,424 12,050 11,912 11,306 10,471 10,578 7,667 6,853 5,714 5,642 8,262 7,269 6,258 7,270 4,302 3,994

Notes: An admission is counted each time a person begins any type of custody or community supervision program. The same person may be included several times in the admission counts where they move from one correctional program to another (e.g., from remand to sentenced custody) or re-enter the system later in the same year. Correctional services include pre-trial detention, provincial director remand, and open and secure custody. Pre-trial detention includes only those young persons detained in custody who are awaiting a further court appearance, and are not presently serving any type of sentence, unless stated otherwise. Unless otherwise specified, counts for pre-trial detention and sentenced custody may include provincial director remand in some jurisdictions. Community sentences includes the community portion of custody supervision, intensive support and supervision, deferred custody and supervision, supervised probation and other community sentences. The total does not necessarily represent all provinces and territories, as there are variations in the availability of data for certain jurisdictions and years. Comparison among years at the national level should be made with caution. Data are not available for Ontario (1997/1998 to 2003/2004), Prince Edward Island (2004/2005 to 2008/2009), Nova Scotia (2009/2010 to 2016/2017), Quebec (2011/2012 to 2021/2022), Saskatchewan (1997/1998, and 2009/2010 to 2015/2016), Alberta (2012/2013 to 2018/2019), and Nunavut (1999/2000 to 2000/2001). Data on youth admissions for Saskatchewan were added in 2016/2017, which would account for some of the increase year-over-year. Data on youth admissions to community services in Manitoba were not available from 1997/1998 to 1999/2000, and in the Northwest Territories from 1999/2000 to 2002/2003. Prior to 2003/2004, data on intensive support and supervision, deferred custody and supervision and other community sentences were unavailable and, prior to 2001/2002, data on the community portion of custody supervision were unavailable. Percentages exclude a small percentage of cases where Indigenous identity was unknown.

Sources: Statistics Canada. n.d.-d. Table 35-10-0003-01 Average counts of young persons in provincial and territorial correctional services. Statistics Canada. n.d.-h. Table 35-10-0006-01 Youth admissions to correctional services, age and sex. Statistics Canada. n.d.-k. Table 35-10-0007-01 Youth admissions to correctional services, by Indigenous identity and sex.